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Post by 3 Sport Town on Sept 12, 2024 7:47:35 GMT -6
Or Trump if you think he won. Harris was up 1.1% in pre debate national head to head polling average on RCP. One poll conducted partially post debate has been done by NY Post. Harris is up +3 in that won. So let’s predict where poling average will be in a couple weeks let’s say on September 27. I predict Harris will be up +4% www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
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Post by Billy John Davy on Sept 12, 2024 11:51:16 GMT -6
I think polls are pretty much locked in, so in 2 weeks, they will be within .5 of where national polls are now.
It is critical for the commie dem machine for polls to remain close. That is the only way it is "believable" that a candidate who no dem primary voter voted for suddenly received 85 million votes.
and let me reiterate this
National polls are useless
Candidates dont matter. Voters dont matter. Votes matter.
This election will come down to (Maricopa County) AZ, (Fulton county) GA, (Philadelphia) PA, (Hennepin County) MN, (Milwaukee County) WI,
(Wayne County) MI, (Clark County) NV
If the GOP cant get their ballot harvesting, ballot chasing and ballot curing game in order, no Republican can win
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65
Junior Member
Posts: 438
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Post by 65 on Sept 12, 2024 11:57:27 GMT -6
Whatever results a person wants to see…..
I can find a poll to make them happy….
Unless one knows the methodology of a poll…..the auditing process of the results……the composition of the focus group…
All things the source never tells us……any poll should be taken with a shaker of salt…
It’s just an excuse to print something, and toss a bone to their audience…..be it dem or repub…
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Post by 3 Sport Town on Sept 12, 2024 13:25:16 GMT -6
I think polls are pretty much locked in, so in 2 weeks, they will be within .5 of where national polls are now. It is critical for the commie dem machine for polls to remain close. That is the only way it is "believable" that a candidate who no dem primary voter voted for suddenly received 85 million votes. and let me reiterate this National polls are useless Candidates dont matter. Voters dont matter. Votes matter. This election will come down to (Maricopa County) AZ, (Fulton county) GA, (Philadelphia) PA, (Hennepin County) MN, (Milwaukee County) WI, (Wayne County) MI, (Clark County) NV If the GOP cant get their ballot harvesting, ballot chasing and ballot curing game in order, no Republican can win Yes I am very aware that our stupid electoral college system makes my vote in Missouri worthless as it will go for Trump. That being said James Carville theory is that Kamala needs to win the national vote by about 3% to win the electoral college. So as Kamala rises nationally she will also have an increase in swing states. I look at swing state polls regularly the problem is there is not enough off them. For instance Yesterday Kamala was up +5% in Wisconsin, but is she really I doubt it. As to those counties obviously those are the biggest, but Trump will lose all of them and still could win the elections if he cuts into the margins that Biden had in 2020. If Harris can cut in the margin in rural counties that helps her. Basically it all comes down to MI, WI, PA, AZ, GA, NV and NC. I be very surprised if any other state votes differently than it did in 2020.
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Post by 3 Sport Town on Sept 12, 2024 13:28:34 GMT -6
Whatever results a person wants to see….. I can find a poll to make them happy…. Unless one knows the methodology of a poll…..the auditing process of the results……the composition of the focus group… All things the source never tells us……any poll should be taken with a shaker of salt… It’s just an excuse to print something, and toss a bone to their audience…..be it dem or repub… That is why I like the RCP site where they average the polls. Some lean Blue and some lean Red, but when you average them they tend to be very accurate especially at that national level, but even for the swing states. www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/election
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65
Junior Member
Posts: 438
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Post by 65 on Sept 12, 2024 13:31:19 GMT -6
I think polls are pretty much locked in, so in 2 weeks, they will be within .5 of where national polls are now. It is critical for the commie dem machine for polls to remain close. That is the only way it is "believable" that a candidate who no dem primary voter voted for suddenly received 85 million votes. and let me reiterate this National polls are useless Candidates dont matter. Voters dont matter. Votes matter. This election will come down to (Maricopa County) AZ, (Fulton county) GA, (Philadelphia) PA, (Hennepin County) MN, (Milwaukee County) WI, (Wayne County) MI, (Clark County) NV If the GOP cant get their ballot harvesting, ballot chasing and ballot curing game in order, no Republican can win Yes I am very aware that our stupid electoral college system makes my vote in Missouri worthless as it will go for Trump. That being said James Carville theory is that Kamala needs to win the national vote by about 3% to win the electoral college. So as Kamala rises nationally she will also have an increase in swing states. I look at swing state polls regularly the problem is there is not enough off them. For instance Yesterday Kamala was up +5% in Wisconsin, but is she really I doubt it. As to those counties obviously those are the biggest, but Trump will lose all of them and still could win the elections if he cuts into the margins that Biden had in 2020. If Harris can cut in the margin in rural counties that helps her. Basically it all comes down to MI, WI, PA, AZ, GA, NV and NC. I be very surprised if any other state votes differently than it did in 2020. If you are dissatisfied with the electoral college….perhaps you should contact a senator or congressman that shares your opinion…..and they can bring an initiative to congress to amend the constitution……you are not without power
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Post by Starbuck on Sept 12, 2024 21:36:27 GMT -6
I think polls are pretty much locked in, so in 2 weeks, they will be within .5 of where national polls are now. It is critical for the commie dem machine for polls to remain close. That is the only way it is "believable" that a candidate who no dem primary voter voted for suddenly received 85 million votes. and let me reiterate this National polls are useless Candidates dont matter. Voters dont matter. Votes matter. This election will come down to (Maricopa County) AZ, (Fulton county) GA, (Philadelphia) PA, (Hennepin County) MN, (Milwaukee County) WI, (Wayne County) MI, (Clark County) NV If the GOP cant get their ballot harvesting, ballot chasing and ballot curing game in order, no Republican can win Yes I am very aware that our stupid electoral college system makes my vote in Missouri worthless as it will go for Trump. That being said James Carville theory is that Kamala needs to win the national vote by about 3% to win the electoral college. So as Kamala rises nationally she will also have an increase in swing states. I look at swing state polls regularly the problem is there is not enough off them. For instance Yesterday Kamala was up +5% in Wisconsin, but is she really I doubt it. As to those counties obviously those are the biggest, but Trump will lose all of them and still could win the elections if he cuts into the margins that Biden had in 2020. If Harris can cut in the margin in rural counties that helps her. Basically it all comes down to MI, WI, PA, AZ, GA, NV and NC. I be very surprised if any other state votes differently than it did in 2020. Interesting. You state the electoral college is stupid. How so?
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Post by Starbuck on Sept 12, 2024 21:54:41 GMT -6
Or Trump if you think he won. Harris was up 1.1% in pre debate national head to head polling average on RCP. One poll conducted partially post debate has been done by NY Post. Harris is up +3 in that won. So let’s predict where poling average will be in a couple weeks let’s say on September 27. I predict Harris will be up +4% www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harrisShe will not be +4. This election is the most unique since 1912. For all practical purposes, it is a contest between 2 incumbents. The Harris/Biden record is there for all to see. So, too, the Trump record. The only "new" voters are those who have come of age to vote over the past 4 years, which have been economically disastrous for that age group. The views of those supporting either side are therefore baked. Leaves very, very few left to sway. Polls on average will not change more than one or two points either way - and given the margin of error in all polls, those small movements will be without meaning. Bottom line. Harris will win if the DEM machine can maximize turnout and also illegally stuff the ballot box in very close states. Trump will win if he can convince REPs and "Independents" who were with him in 2016 and abandoned him in 2020 to return, as well as gain a small increase from black voters in urban DEM strongholds. I support neither of them. But if I were a betting man, at this moment my money would be on Harris. A month from now, my bet could very well change.
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Post by longtimereader on Sept 13, 2024 2:22:14 GMT -6
Or Trump if you think he won. Harris was up 1.1% in pre debate national head to head polling average on RCP. One poll conducted partially post debate has been done by NY Post. Harris is up +3 in that won. So let’s predict where poling average will be in a couple weeks let’s say on September 27. I predict Harris will be up +4% www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harrisShe will not be +4. This election is the most unique since 1912. For all practical purposes, it is a contest between 2 incumbents. The Harris/Biden record is there for all to see. So, too, the Trump record. The only "new" voters are those who have come of age to vote over the past 4 years, which have been economically disastrous for that age group. The views of those supporting either side are therefore baked. Leaves very, very few left to sway. Polls on average will not change more than one or two points either way - and given the margin of error in all polls, those small movements will be without meaning. Bottom line. Harris will win if the DEM machine can maximize turnout and also illegally stuff the ballot box in very close states. Trump will win if he can convince REPs and "Independents" who were with him in 2016 and abandoned him in 2020 to return, as well as gain a small increase from black voters in urban DEM strongholds. I support neither of them. But if I were a betting man, at this moment my money would be on Harris. A month from now, my bet could very well change. If Harris wins we are fucked as a country. People like 3swallows will smile like stupid monkeys
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Post by elliottg on Sept 13, 2024 5:47:40 GMT -6
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Post by Billy John Davy on Sept 13, 2024 5:52:35 GMT -6
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JDCJJ
Senior Member
Posts: 680
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Post by JDCJJ on Sept 13, 2024 7:56:10 GMT -6
CNN: More voters trust Trump on the economy AFTER watching the debate.It's the economy, stupid.
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Post by johntchance on Sept 13, 2024 12:34:13 GMT -6
I think polls are pretty much locked in, so in 2 weeks, they will be within .5 of where national polls are now. It is critical for the commie dem machine for polls to remain close. That is the only way it is "believable" that a candidate who no dem primary voter voted for suddenly received 85 million votes. and let me reiterate this National polls are useless Candidates dont matter. Voters dont matter. Votes matter. This election will come down to (Maricopa County) AZ, (Fulton county) GA, (Philadelphia) PA, (Hennepin County) MN, (Milwaukee County) WI, (Wayne County) MI, (Clark County) NV If the GOP cant get their ballot harvesting, ballot chasing and ballot curing game in order, no Republican can win Yes I am very aware that our stupid electoral college system makes my vote in Missouri worthless as it will go for Trump. That being said James Carville theory is that Kamala needs to win the national vote by about 3% to win the electoral college. So as Kamala rises nationally she will also have an increase in swing states. I look at swing state polls regularly the problem is there is not enough off them. For instance Yesterday Kamala was up +5% in Wisconsin, but is she really I doubt it. As to those counties obviously those are the biggest, but Trump will lose all of them and still could win the elections if he cuts into the margins that Biden had in 2020. If Harris can cut in the margin in rural counties that helps her. Basically it all comes down to MI, WI, PA, AZ, GA, NV and NC. I be very surprised if any other state votes differently than it did in 2020. If it wasn't for the electoral college my vote would be useless
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Post by keefdaman on Sept 14, 2024 16:50:23 GMT -6
Or Trump if you think he won. Harris was up 1.1% in pre debate national head to head polling average on RCP. One poll conducted partially post debate has been done by NY Post. Harris is up +3 in that won. So let’s predict where poling average will be in a couple weeks let’s say on September 27. I predict Harris will be up +4% www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harrisI assume that you are a socialist?
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Post by keefdaman on Sept 14, 2024 20:05:13 GMT -6
I still think Trump wins in November. Harris is too progressive to get widespread votes
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