Why so many polls 50-50 +/-1 +/-2? Nate Silver Has a Theory

floridaanticub
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Posts: 377

Why so many polls 50-50 +/-1 +/-2? Nate Silver Has a Theory Nov 1, 2024 10:52:59 GMT -6

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Post by floridaanticub on Nov 1, 2024 10:52:59 GMT -6

I can take Nate Silver or leave him, but I have noticed this in the numbers and he is claiming the pollsters are basically massaging numbers. Why? He doesn't say. He just says its almost statistically impossible, especially on the state polls.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14027247/Polling-Nostradamus-Nate-Silver-says-lying-election-forecasts.html

captbudman
The Mod Squad

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Why so many polls 50-50 +/-1 +/-2? Nate Silver Has a Theory Nov 1, 2024 10:57:16 GMT -6

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Post by captbudman on Nov 1, 2024 10:57:16 GMT -6

Nov 1, 2024 10:52:59 GMT -6 floridaanticub said:

I can take Nate Silver or leave him, but I have noticed this in the numbers and he is claiming the pollsters are basically massaging numbers. Why? He doesn't say. He just says its almost statistically impossible, especially on the state polls.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14027247/Polling-Nostradamus-Nate-Silver-says-lying-election-forecasts.html

Nate Silver runs a "black box" algorithm that has never been disclosed. He takes data from other polls, weighing liberal polls higher while discounting conservative polls (such as Atlas Intel or Rich Baris) or refusing to use results from others such as Rasmussen Reports. Then he gives the results that he wants, whether they are realistic or not.

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Billy John Davy
The Mod Squad

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Why so many polls 50-50 +/-1 +/-2? Nate Silver Has a Theory Nov 1, 2024 11:04:13 GMT -6

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Post by Billy John Davy on Nov 1, 2024 11:04:13 GMT -6

hes acting like he is above the fray, he adds weight to polls he favors to make things appear closer than they are.

I cant think that 10 different polling agencies are polling 1000 different people every 3 days, they are usign the same people over and over again with a few newbies added in